Archived board for Oct 30, 2026. See today's board.
TenSpoke · Today · Friday, Oct 30, 2026
Bloomberg reports Anthropic is SpaceX's biggest customer, and Amazon says demand for its cloud is still very strong.
One AI computing customer made up 34.5% of SpaceX's Q3 revenue, and Bloomberg says it is Anthropic; neither company has confirmed. The FCC proposed more airwaves for satellite-to-phone service, Starship Flight 15 is penciled in for Nov 12, and Tesla's Robotaxi now runs until 2 AM.
The daily context behind $TSLA and $SPCX, in plain English.
Today in 30 seconds
- Reported: Anthropic is SpaceX's biggest customer, at 34.5% of Q3 revenue.
- Amazon's cloud grew 39% to $46.0B, and its spending keeps rising.
- The FCC proposed more satellite-to-phone airwaves; it is a proposal, not a grant.
Words used on this page, explained
- Customer B
- The label SpaceX's filing uses for a big customer it does not name.
- capex
- Money spent on buildings and equipment, such as data centers and chips.
- NPRM
- A notice of proposed rulemaking: the FCC's draft rules, put out for public comment before any final vote.
- static fire
- An engine test with the rocket held down on the ground.
- design kit (PDK)
- The rulebook chip designers use to lay out chips for a factory's process.
01What's new today
The freshest updates first, each with what is still unknown and which bet it moves.
Reported: Anthropic is SpaceX's biggest customer, at 34.5% of Q3 revenue
SpaceX's Q3 10-Q (quarterly SEC report) says one unnamed buyer of its AI computing, called "Customer B," made up 34.5% of its Q3 revenue, and Bloomberg reported Oct 29, citing one unnamed person, that the customer is Anthropic.
Read more
This is a Reported item: neither SpaceX nor Anthropic has confirmed it, and Anthropic declined to comment (Bloomberg). The 34.5% figure itself is in the filing; for the first nine months of 2026 the same customer was 24.2%, and a year earlier it was below the 10% level that must be disclosed. If the report is right, Anthropic now pays SpaceX more than the US government does. It fits Anthropic's own S-1, which puts its SpaceX compute deals at up to $120.5B through 2029, about $3.1B a month from December; the first no-cancel periods end in January and March 2027, and after that either side can cancel on 90 days' notice. What it means: one customer is now about a third of SpaceX's revenue.
Affects: Bet 03 AI data centers · Spoke: Super Intelligence
Source: SpaceX Q3 10-Q (SEC), Oct 22, 2026; Bloomberg (one unnamed source), Oct 29, 2026; Japan Times (Bloomberg), Oct 30, 2026
Amazon's cloud grows 39%, and its spending keeps climbing
Amazon said Oct 29 that AWS, its cloud business, grew 39% to $46.0B in Q3, its fastest growth in nearly five years, and said on its call that demand for AWS capacity "remains exceptionally strong."
Read more
Amazon put cash capex (money spent on data centers and equipment) at $75.9B for the quarter; CNBC, using FactSet data, put capital expenditures at $77.3B, well above the $58.7B analysts expected. Amazon still expects about $220B of cash capex in 2026 and "meaningfully more" in 2027, and its free cash flow over the past 12 months was an outflow of $42.4B. What it means: a third big cloud buyer, after Google and Microsoft on Oct 28, says demand is strong and is spending heavily to keep up, which supports SpaceX's compute rental business. Amazon also competes with Starlink through Amazon Leo.
Affects: Bet 03 AI data centers · Spoke: Super Intelligence
Source: Amazon Q3 results, Oct 29, 2026; Amazon Q3 call transcript, Oct 29, 2026; CNBC, Oct 29, 2026
The FCC proposes more airwaves for satellite-to-phone service, but nothing is granted yet
The FCC voted unanimously on Oct 29 to propose rules that would add 482 MHz of spectrum (airwaves) for satellite-to-phone service; it is a proposal, called an NPRM (notice of proposed rulemaking, which asks the public for comments), not a final rule or a grant to SpaceX.
Read more
The proposal would also drop some current requirements for satellite-to-phone service, which the FCC calls Supplemental Coverage from Space, and loosen leasing limits. The FCC also proposed auctioning 25 MHz in the 1675-1695 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz bands for ground, satellite-to-phone or mixed use, and it did not act on a SpaceX request tied to a NextNav petition (Broadband Breakfast). Separately, SpaceX told the FCC on Oct 28 that cell-tower protection limits pushed by T-Mobile would create buffer zones of more than 400 km and cut millions off from Starlink Mobile (as reported by TeslaNorth). Comments and a final vote are still to come.
Affects: Bet 02 Starlink Mobile · Spoke: Starlink
Source: FCC October 2026 open meeting, Oct 29, 2026; Federal Register meeting notice, Oct 29, 2026; Broadband Breakfast, Oct 29, 2026; TeslaNorth, Oct 29, 2026
Starship Flight 15 is penciled in for Nov 12, and Musk says Ship 42 will be the first ship caught by the tower
An FAA air-traffic planning slide now lists Starship Flight 15 no earlier than Nov 12, moved from Nov 8, and Musk posted on Oct 28 that "Starship 42 will be the first tower catch."
Read more
Nov 12 is a planning date shared by the SpaceNotices account, not a SpaceX launch date, and the FAA launch license is still needed (shiftdelete.net, Starlust). SpaceX said Oct 28 that Ship 42 finished a full-length six-engine static fire (an engine test with the rocket held down) plus a single-engine burn that simulates the burn used to leave orbit. Booster 22 fired on Oct 25. SpaceX has caught boosters with the tower's arms before but never a ship; on the Oct 20 call Musk called success on the first try "more likely than not."
Affects: Bet 04 Starship · Spoke: Starship
Source: Elon Musk on X, Oct 28, 2026; SpaceX on X, Oct 28, 2026; shiftdelete.net, Oct 29, 2026; Starlust, Oct 2026
Tesla's Robotaxi now runs until 2 AM
Tesla's Robotaxi account posted late on Oct 29 that service hours are now 6 AM to 2 AM, three hours later than the 11 PM close it set on Oct 12.
Read more
The same update added a rear camera view during rides, trip sharing with a friend, a Calm Mode that dims the screen and cabin lights, and Grok in Robotaxi Model Y cars. The post did not say which cities get the new hours, and Tesla still does not publish ride counts. Tesla's target is 24/7 service by the end of the year.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: Robotaxi on X, Oct 29, 2026; TeslaNorth, Oct 29, 2026
A Seoul court sides with Tesla in an FSD refund case
The Seoul Central District Court on Oct 29 rejected a lawsuit by 88 Tesla owners seeking full refunds for the Full Self-Driving option, ruling that Tesla had not broken its contract (Reuters).
Read more
The court found the option did not promise fully driverless driving, that Tesla had already delivered some of its features, including a recent update that added traffic-light and sign recognition and city driving to older cars with the Hardware 3 computer, and that further features depend on technology and regulator approval. Tesla did not immediately comment. Tesla faces similar cases in other countries; whether these owners will appeal is not yet known.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: CNA (Reuters), Oct 29, 2026; Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 29, 2026; Chosun Biz, Oct 29, 2026
Intel releases its 14A design kit on schedule, still with no customer named
Intel said on Oct 29 that it released the 0.9 version of its 14A process design kit in October, the rulebook chip designers use to lay out chips for a manufacturing process.
Read more
CEO Lip-Bu Tan said select customers are already working with it and that the full 1.0 kit should come by Q1 2027, with 14A production starting in 2028. He again said Intel will not disclose customers unless they announce themselves. Intel is the named process partner for Terafab, so this is a step on Intel's timeline, not Terafab output; Terafab's own targets are a first test chip around May or June 2027 and volume around Q3 2028 (Musk, Oct 20).
Affects: Bet 07 Terafab · Spoke: Terafab
Source: Intel Q3 results, Oct 29, 2026; Intel Q3 call transcript, Oct 29, 2026; SpaceX Q3 call transcript (Motley Fool), Oct 20, 2026
Waymo adds nearly 250 square miles of service in five cities
Waymo said Oct 27 it is adding nearly 250 square miles of driverless service over the following week across Los Angeles, Nashville, Orlando, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area.
Read more
New areas include Torrance in Los Angeles, La Jolla in San Diego and a BART station connection in San Jose, and Waymo says its Orlando area nearly doubles in the east. Waymo is Tesla's main US robotaxi rival; for comparison, trackers put Tesla's expanded Houston zone at about 254 square miles. The post gave no new ride or fleet numbers.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
02Coming up
- Oct 30Tesla's sworn answers to safety regulators on Cybercab due.
- Late OctSpaceX nameplate compute near 2.2 GW by month-end (CFO).
- NovemberCybercab launches in Dallas (Tesla, Oct 21). Starship Flight 15, no earlier than Nov 12 on an FAA air-traffic planning slide, with a booster and ship catch attempt; FAA launch license still needed. Optimus demo video possible in "a month or two" (Musk, Oct 21). Nov 17–19: FAA public scoping meetings on Starbase Starship expansion. Nov 30: FAA comments due on Starbase Starship expansion.
- DecemberDec 1: fourth SpaceX compute hosting deal starts billing. Anthropic expects all its SpaceX compute delivered, at about $3.1B a month in total (Anthropic S-1). Dec 3: Tesla annual meeting, 3:00 PM CT (Gigafactory Texas and online). Dec 8: big SPCX unlock. Dec 10: first Starship Starlink mission, no earlier than. EU vote on Tesla's driving software. Starship Flight 16, aimed at December. By year-end: SpaceX's $40B chip lease with Apollo expected to close, with its interest rate set at pricing (8-K); Starship lander Cabin 1 finished (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); Tesla targets 24/7 Robotaxi service, first Cybercab sales to customers, and 400 MW of its own AI training compute; SpaceX targets 2.5–3 GW of nameplate compute and a $100B annualized revenue rate based on December.
- 2027January and March: the no-cancel periods on Anthropic's SpaceX compute deals end; after that either side can cancel on 90 days' notice (Anthropic S-1). Q1: possible EU-wide FSD approval (Musk: surprised if later). First half: SpaceX's chip leases begin as Nvidia Vera Rubin chips arrive (8-K); easyJet starts installing Starlink (done by early 2028). Terafab research fab commissioning in the first half, test chip around May–June (Musk). AI5 chip in Optimus around April. Q2: first customer-owned cars join the Robotaxi fleet (Tesla target); Robotaxi revenue "noticeable" (Musk). Starship ship-to-ship fuel transfer demo in Q1 (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); weekly Starship flights targeted in the first half. SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum deal expected to close in the first half. Mobile V2 and Starmind satellites begin flying. Artemis III: Orion docks with a test Starship in Earth orbit (NASA). Uncrewed Starship Moon landing test late in the year (NASA). Optimus deliveries to outside customers around year-end (Musk).
- 2028Starlink Mobile service on SpaceX's own spectrum targeted for early 2028. Bolivia's towns start paying for school Starlink service after 24 free months (Bolivian government). Terafab volume production targeted around Q3 (Musk). New Roadster production starts (Tesla). First crewed Moon landings planned; NASA picks the first lander by readiness (NASA). Ukraine's first Nokia/ICEYE satellite planned (Nokia). Cowboy Space's Big Iron data-center rocket targets its first flight.
- 2029First Starship launch from SpaceX's planned Louisiana spaceport (target).
03The bets
Ten spokes are the big things. The bets below are a living scorecard; they change as the picture changes. Updated Oct 30, 2026. See all bets.
Starlink: the profit engine
Q3: 13.6M subscribers and $2.37B operating income. United plans Starlink on its whole fleet by end-2027 (Oct 27). The Pentagon watchdog won't probe the Ukraine slowdowns (Oct 28).
Watch Updated Oct 3002 · $SPCX · StarlinkStarlink Mobile: become a phone carrier
Now live across Brazil with Vivo (Oct 26). T-Mobile's CEO says "no room" for a SpaceX network-rental deal (Oct 28). The FCC proposed 482 MHz more for satellite-to-phone, a proposal, not a grant (Oct 29).
Scaling Updated Oct 3003 · $SPCX · Super IntelligenceAI data centers: renting compute
Test: SpaceX's company-wide goal of $100B ARR (annual run rate: one month's revenue times 12) by year-end (December revenue x12, reported with Q4) and profit after stock pay. Q3: $7.56B revenue, $431M operating profit. Anthropic's S-1: up to $120.5B through 2029, about $3.1B a month from December, locked until early 2027 (Oct 26). Reported: Anthropic is "Customer B," 34.5% of Q3 revenue (Bloomberg, Oct 29). Google, Microsoft and Amazon say AI demand is strong (Oct 28-29).
Watch Updated Oct 3004 · $SPCX · StarshipStarship: cheap and routine
Both Flight 15 stages have fired; Musk says Ship 42 will be the first tower catch (Oct 28). Flight 15 no earlier than Nov 12 on an FAA planning slide; license still needed. A lawsuit seeks to void the Starbase Louisiana tax deal (Oct 26).
Behind Updated Oct 2705 · $SPCX · StarmindOrbital compute: Starmind vs Google Suncatcher
SpaceX says Starmind satellites begin flying in 2027. Google's Suncatcher test satellite has been in orbit since Oct 1; new rival Cowboy Space targets 2028 (Oct 26).
Watch Updated Oct 2906 · $SPCX · Super Intelligence · XGrok and X: subscriptions and ads
Shopify adds Shop Pay checkout to Grok's agent app (Oct 28). X ad revenue up 19% to $538M in Q3.
Watch Updated Oct 3007 · $TSLA + $SPCX · TerafabTerafab
Intel released its 14A design kit 0.9 in October, no customer named (Oct 29). Test chip around mid-2027, volume around Q3 2028.
Scaling Updated Oct 3008 · $TSLA · FSD + RobotaxiRobotaxi: driverless rides at scale
Service now runs 6 AM to 2 AM, and a Seoul court rejected an FSD refund suit (Oct 29). Texas lists 1,080 robotaxis, a registration list, not cars in service.
Watch09 · $TSLA · OptimusOptimus: robots doing real work
Production started on the Fremont line; 20,000 a week is at least a year out; outside customers around end of 2027.
Watch Updated Oct 2810 · $TSLA · Tesla Vehicles · Tesla EnergyTesla core: vehicles, Semi, energy
Q3: $1.53B free cash flow; Megapacks almost sold out for 2027; every new US and Mexico Tesla can now power tools through Powershare (Oct 27).