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TenSpoke · Today · Thursday, Oct 29, 2026
T-Mobile's CEO rules out renting his network to SpaceX, while Google and Microsoft say demand for AI computing still beats supply.
Google is now renting extra computing from others, and Microsoft says demand exceeds supply. Italy backs a quick EU approval of Tesla's driver-assist software, and Louisiana residents sued to undo the Starbase Louisiana tax deal.
The daily context behind $TSLA and $SPCX, in plain English.
Today in 30 seconds
- T-Mobile's CEO says there's no room for a SpaceX network-rental deal.
- Google Cloud sales doubled, and Google is renting extra computing from others.
- Microsoft says AI demand still exceeds supply; Azure grew 48%.
Words used on this page, explained
- MVNO
- A carrier that rents another carrier's network and sells phone plans under its own name.
- TPU
- Google's own AI chip, which it rents out and now also sells as full systems.
- capex
- Money spent on buildings and equipment, such as data centers and chips.
- free cash flow
- Cash left over after paying for operations and capex.
- inspector general
- An internal watchdog that investigates a government department.
01What's new today
The freshest updates first, each with what is still unknown and which bet it moves.
T-Mobile's CEO says there's no room for a SpaceX network-rental deal
On T-Mobile's Q3 call on Oct 28, CEO Srini Gopalan said "I see no room for an MVNO with SpaceX," so T-Mobile won't rent its network for SpaceX to sell phone plans under its own name.
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An MVNO is a carrier that rents another carrier's network and sells service under its own brand, a quick way into the US market before SpaceX builds its own. Gopalan called satellite "a complementary product" and said a resale or other purely commercial deal is still possible. Verizon's CEO ruled out the same kind of deal on Oct 26, so two of the three big US carriers have now said no, which matches this bet's bad sign. SpaceX's main plan does not depend on it: it is buying its own spectrum and seeking tower access, with US service targeted for early 2028.
Affects: Bet 02 Starlink Mobile · Spoke: Starlink
Source: T-Mobile Q3 call transcript (Motley Fool), Oct 28, 2026; Mobile World Live, Oct 2026
Google's cloud sales double, and it is now renting extra computing from others
Alphabet said Oct 28 that Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7B in Q3, and that it began renting outside computing capacity at the end of the quarter because it is short of its own.
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Google Cloud's backlog (orders signed but not yet delivered) reached $561B, and sales of TPU systems (Google's own AI chips, sold as full systems) were a meaningful part of growth. Alphabet did not name its outside suppliers; Google's $920M-a-month rental from SpaceX began in October under a June SpaceX filing. Alphabet said capex (spending on data centers and equipment) will rise significantly in 2027, and it reported negative free cash flow of $9.1B plus an $8.2B paper loss on its SpaceX stake. What it means: a big buyer is still short of compute, which supports SpaceX's rental business.
Affects: Bet 03 AI data centers · Spoke: Super Intelligence
Source: Alphabet Q3 results (SEC), Oct 28, 2026; Alphabet Q3 call transcript, Oct 28, 2026; Reuters via Investing.com, Oct 28, 2026; MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Oct 29, 2026
Microsoft says demand for AI computing still beats supply
Microsoft said Oct 28 that Azure, its cloud business, grew 48% in the quarter, and CFO Amy Hood said "We still have demand that exceeds supply."
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Quarterly capex of $45.2B came in below analyst estimates, partly because outside partners were slow to deliver data-center capacity (CNBC). Microsoft expects about $170B of capex in calendar 2026 and more than $50B this quarter (Fortune). What it means: the biggest buyers still can't get enough compute, which supports rental demand, and the delays show how hard it is to bring new capacity online fast. Amazon reports its results today after the market closes.
Affects: Bet 03 AI data centers · Spoke: Super Intelligence
Source: Microsoft Q1 results, Oct 28, 2026; Fortune, Oct 28, 2026; CNBC, Oct 28, 2026
Italy backs a quick EU yes for Tesla's driver-assist software
Italy's transport minister, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, posted on Oct 29 after a call with Musk that Italy "supports the swift approval by the EU" of Tesla's driver-assistance system (LaPresse).
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In Europe the software is called Tesla Assisted Driving. It is supervised, so the driver must keep watching the road, and Italy has not approved it on its own yet (Corriere della Sera). Ten EU countries already recognize it. The EU-wide vote is expected in December at the earliest, and how the other big countries will vote is still unknown.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: LaPresse, Oct 29, 2026; Corriere della Sera, Oct 29, 2026
Louisiana residents sue to undo the Starbase Louisiana tax deal
Three Vermilion Parish residents and a new nonprofit sued parish officials on Oct 26, asking a judge to void the Aug 25 approval of SpaceX's Starbase Louisiana tax agreement over alleged open-meetings violations.
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The deal swaps local property taxes for payments starting at $25M a year and rising 2% a year for 25 years; the Louisiana Illuminator puts the tax break at nearly $23.8B over that time. The suit lists eight alleged violations, including a code name ("Project Osprey") on agendas and a single notice taped to a courthouse door. Neither SpaceX nor the state is being sued, and the case is about how officials met, not the incentives themselves. No hearing date yet; construction is expected to start by the end of 2027, with first launches targeted for 2029.
Affects: Bet 04 Starship · Spoke: Starship
Source: nola.com, Oct 26, 2026; Louisiana Illuminator, Oct 27, 2026; The Current, Oct 26, 2026
Pentagon watchdog won't investigate the Ukraine Starlink slowdowns
The Pentagon's inspector general, its internal watchdog, turned down a request from nine senators of both parties to investigate the Starlink and Starshield slowdowns in Ukraine, CNN reported Oct 28.
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Starshield is the military version of Starlink. In a letter dated Oct 27, Inspector General Platte Moring said the Air Force and Space Force are better placed to answer the senators' questions, and his office said it may reconsider if new information comes to light. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen called the decision "concerning" and urged a full investigation. Who ordered the slowdowns is still not public; CNN says speeds were fully restored on Oct 24.
Affects: Bet 01 Starlink · Spoke: Starlink
Source: CNN, Oct 28, 2026
Shopify adds Shop Pay checkout to Grok's agent app
Shopify said Oct 28 that its Shop Pay checkout now works inside personal AI agents, and listed Grok's agent app among those offering Shop Pay for brands that are not on Shopify.
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Shopify says the buyer stays in control of each purchase and the card is never shared with the agent. Its tools for store owners now also connect to Grok and Grok's agent app. This follows Amazon blocking purchases by Grok's agent in mid-October. No user or revenue numbers came with the news.
Affects: Bet 06 Grok and X · Spoke: Super Intelligence
Source: Shopify Fall '26 Edition, Oct 28, 2026
02Coming up
- Oct 29FCC vote on a proposal to open 482 MHz more for satellite-to-phone service (FCC open meeting, 9:30 AM CT). Amazon reports quarterly results after the market closes; its cloud and AI spending plans matter for compute demand.
- Oct 30Tesla's sworn answers to safety regulators on Cybercab due.
- Late OctSpaceX nameplate compute near 2.2 GW by month-end (CFO).
- NovemberCybercab launches in Dallas (Tesla, Oct 21). Starship Flight 15, no earlier than Nov 8, with a booster and ship catch attempt; FAA launch license still needed. Optimus demo video possible in "a month or two" (Musk, Oct 21). Nov 17–19: FAA public scoping meetings on Starbase Starship expansion. Nov 30: FAA comments due on Starbase Starship expansion.
- DecemberDec 1: fourth SpaceX compute hosting deal starts billing. Anthropic expects all its SpaceX compute delivered, at about $3.1B a month in total (Anthropic S-1). Dec 3: Tesla annual meeting, 3:00 PM CT (Gigafactory Texas and online). Dec 8: big SPCX unlock. Dec 10: first Starship Starlink mission, no earlier than. EU vote on Tesla's driving software. Starship Flight 16, aimed at December. By year-end: SpaceX's $40B chip lease with Apollo expected to close, with its interest rate set at pricing (8-K); Starship lander Cabin 1 finished (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); Tesla targets 24/7 Robotaxi service, first Cybercab sales to customers, and 400 MW of its own AI training compute; SpaceX targets 2.5–3 GW of nameplate compute and a $100B annualized revenue rate based on December.
- 2027January and March: the no-cancel periods on Anthropic's SpaceX compute deals end; after that either side can cancel on 90 days' notice (Anthropic S-1). Q1: possible EU-wide FSD approval (Musk: surprised if later). First half: SpaceX's chip leases begin as Nvidia Vera Rubin chips arrive (8-K); easyJet starts installing Starlink (done by early 2028). Terafab research fab commissioning in the first half, test chip around May–June (Musk). AI5 chip in Optimus around April. Q2: first customer-owned cars join the Robotaxi fleet (Tesla target); Robotaxi revenue "noticeable" (Musk). Starship ship-to-ship fuel transfer demo in Q1 (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); weekly Starship flights targeted in the first half. SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum deal expected to close in the first half. Mobile V2 and Starmind satellites begin flying. Artemis III: Orion docks with a test Starship in Earth orbit (NASA). Uncrewed Starship Moon landing test late in the year (NASA). Optimus deliveries to outside customers around year-end (Musk).
- 2028Starlink Mobile service on SpaceX's own spectrum targeted for early 2028. Bolivia's towns start paying for school Starlink service after 24 free months (Bolivian government). Terafab volume production targeted around Q3 (Musk). New Roadster production starts (Tesla). First crewed Moon landings planned; NASA picks the first lander by readiness (NASA). Ukraine's first Nokia/ICEYE satellite planned (Nokia). Cowboy Space's Big Iron data-center rocket targets its first flight.
- 2029First Starship launch from SpaceX's planned Louisiana spaceport (target).
03The bets
Ten spokes are the big things. The bets below are a living scorecard; they change as the picture changes. Updated Oct 29, 2026. See all bets.
Starlink: the profit engine
Q3: 13.6M subscribers and $2.37B operating income. United plans Starlink on its whole fleet by end-2027 (Oct 27). The Pentagon watchdog won't probe the Ukraine slowdowns (Oct 28).
Watch Updated Oct 2902 · $SPCX · StarlinkStarlink Mobile: become a phone carrier
Now live across Brazil with Vivo, 7M phones connected (Oct 26). T-Mobile's CEO says there's "no room" for a SpaceX network-rental deal (Oct 28), after Verizon said the same.
Scaling Updated Oct 2903 · $SPCX · Super IntelligenceAI data centers: renting compute
Test: SpaceX's company-wide goal of $100B ARR (annual run rate: one month's revenue times 12) by year-end (December revenue x12, reported with Q4) and profit after stock pay. Q3: $7.56B revenue, $431M operating profit. Anthropic's S-1: up to $120.5B through 2029, about $3.1B a month from December, locked until early 2027 (Oct 26). The $40B Apollo chip deal is a lease, not yet closed. Google and Microsoft say AI demand still beats supply (Oct 28).
Watch Updated Oct 2904 · $SPCX · StarshipStarship: cheap and routine
Ship 42 fired all six engines (Oct 27) after Booster 22's 33-engine test (Oct 25). Flight 15 no earlier than Nov 8; FAA license still needed. A lawsuit seeks to void the Starbase Louisiana tax deal (Oct 26).
Behind Updated Oct 2705 · $SPCX · StarmindOrbital compute: Starmind vs Google Suncatcher
SpaceX says Starmind satellites begin flying in 2027. Nothing in orbit yet; new rival Cowboy Space targets 2028 (Oct 26).
Watch Updated Oct 2906 · $SPCX · Super Intelligence · XGrok and X: subscriptions and ads
Shopify adds Shop Pay checkout to Grok's agent app (Oct 28). X ad revenue up 19% to $538M in Q3.
Watch Updated Oct 2407 · $TSLA + $SPCX · TerafabTerafab
Test chip around mid-2027, volume around Q3 2028; first Texas phase put at $16B+ and about 3,000 jobs (Rep. McCaul).
Scaling Updated Oct 2908 · $TSLA · FSD + RobotaxiRobotaxi: driverless rides at scale
Texas list now 1,080 robotaxis, 573 of them Cybercabs (Oct 28), but a registration list, not cars in service; Houston area about 10 times bigger.
Watch09 · $TSLA · OptimusOptimus: robots doing real work
Production started on the Fremont line; 20,000 a week is at least a year out; outside customers around end of 2027.
Watch Updated Oct 2810 · $TSLA · Tesla Vehicles · Tesla EnergyTesla core: vehicles, Semi, energy
Q3: $1.53B free cash flow; Megapacks almost sold out for 2027; every new US and Mexico Tesla can now power tools through Powershare (Oct 27).