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TenSpoke · Today · Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026
Cybercabs now outnumber Model Ys on Tesla's Texas robotaxi list, and both Starship stages for Flight 15 have fired their engines.
Texas now lists 1,080 Tesla robotaxis, 573 of them Cybercabs, and Ship 42 finished a full six-engine test on Oct 27. United says Starlink is on nearly half its flights and is heading to the whole fleet, and SpaceX told the FAA that airspace rules need to change for thousands of launches a year.
The daily context behind $TSLA and $SPCX, in plain English.
Today in 30 seconds
- Texas now lists 1,080 Tesla robotaxis, and most are Cybercabs.
- Ship 42 fired all six engines, so both Flight 15 stages are tested.
- United has Starlink on 661 jets and will equip its whole fleet.
Words used on this page, explained
- static fire
- A test where the rocket lights its engines while held down on the pad.
- registration list
- The Texas DMV list of cars a company is allowed to run without a driver; not every car on it carries riders.
- major collision
- In Tesla's report, a crash where an airbag or similar safety device goes off.
- reentry
- When a spacecraft comes back down through the atmosphere.
- Powershare
- Tesla's feature that lets a car's battery power tools, appliances or a home.
01What's new today
The freshest updates first, each with what is still unknown and which bet it moves.
Cybercabs are now the majority on Tesla's Texas robotaxi list
The Texas DMV list for Tesla Robotaxi LLC shows 1,080 vehicles as of Oct 28: 573 Cybercabs and 507 Model Ys, up from 970 on Oct 26 (FSD Database, which tracks the state list).
Read more
That is about 222 more in a week, nearly all Cybercabs, the two-seat robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals. It is the first time Cybercabs outnumber Model Ys on the list. What it means: Tesla is building Cybercabs faster than it is opening new service. Still unknown: this is a registration list, not cars carrying riders. Public Cybercab rides still run only in Austin, with Dallas due in November, and Tesla does not share ride counts.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: TxDMV lookup, checked Oct 28, 2026; FSD Database, Oct 28, 2026; Tesla North, Oct 27, 2026
Ship 42 fires all six engines, so both Flight 15 stages are tested
Ship 42, the upper stage for Starship Flight 15, completed a roughly 60-second static fire with all six engines at SpaceX's Massey's test site on Oct 27, after a single-engine test earlier that day (Next Spaceflight).
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NASASpaceflight, which films Starbase around the clock, posted that it looked like "six healthy Raptor 3 engines for a full 60 seconds." Booster 22 fired all 33 engines on Oct 25, so both halves of the rocket have now done their big ground test. SpaceX has said Flight 15 will try to catch both the booster and the ship at the tower. Still needed: stacking, the FAA launch license and a date; the latest target is no earlier than Nov 8.
Affects: Bet 04 Starship · Spoke: Starship
Source: Next Spaceflight (Ship 42), Oct 27, 2026; newlaunch.space (NASASpaceflight post), Oct 27, 2026
United now plans Starlink on every jet, after first planning about 65%
United CEO Scott Kirby said on the Cheeky Pint podcast, reported Oct 27, that Starlink is on 661 United jets and about 48% of its flights, hitting 50% next week, with about three more jets added each day (Tesla North).
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He said United first planned to stop at about 65% of the fleet, but switched to the whole fleet after passengers started choosing flights to get Starlink. Full coverage is due by the end of 2027, and Los Angeles should be United's first all-Starlink hub in the first half of 2027. More than 5.4 million United passengers used it in September (United). Kirby also said the edge is temporary because other airlines will catch up. Deal terms are not public.
Affects: Bet 01 Starlink · Spoke: Starlink
Source: Tesla North, Oct 27, 2026; United Q3 results, Oct 20, 2026
SpaceX tells the FAA that airspace rules must change for thousands of launches a year
Answering an FAA request for ideas on new spaceports and launch "corridors" in the sky, SpaceX said today's air traffic rules were built for rare launches and need to change, as reported by Benzinga; Musk posted on Oct 28 that "10k Starship launches/year is just from Starbase Louisiana."
Read more
The FAA's request says US launches and reentries (spacecraft coming back down) could reach 10,000 a year by 2035, and comments were due Oct 26. SpaceX pointed to its own airspace tool, Cleared, which it says airlines already use. Starbase Louisiana is still a plan: construction is expected to start in 2027, with first launches targeted for 2029. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford has said rockets must become much more reliable before regulators approve far more launches (Reuters, earlier). What it means: a long-term goal, not a near-term change.
Affects: Bet 04 Starship · Spoke: Starship
Source: Musk on X, Oct 28, 2026; Benzinga, Oct 28, 2026; FAA request for information (Federal Register), 2026
Tesla's new safety numbers: 6 million miles per major crash with FSD on
Tesla's updated FSD (Supervised) safety report says cars with the software engaged went 6,006,200 miles per major collision over the last 12 months in North America, versus 660,164 miles for the US average (Tesla).
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A major collision here means one where an airbag or similar safety device goes off. The report covers 9.48 billion FSD miles and 1,579 such crashes, and counts a crash as FSD if the software was on within five seconds before impact (Tesla North). These are Tesla's own numbers, not checked by regulators, and highway-heavy FSD driving is not the same mix as all US driving. Regulators are still reviewing Tesla's software, and its sworn Cybercab answers to NHTSA are due Oct 30.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: Tesla FSD safety report, checked Oct 28, 2026; Tesla North, Oct 27, 2026
Every new Tesla in the US and Mexico can now work as a power outlet
Tesla said on Oct 27 that every new Tesla in the US and Mexico can run tools and gadgets through Powershare, using its Mobile Connector with an outlet adapter for 120-volt power up to about 2.4 kW (Tesla North).
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Canada is not included. New Model 3 and Model Y can also back up a home during an outage with a Powerwall 3 home battery (Tesla). What it means: a small feature, but it links the car and home-energy businesses more closely. Still unknown: whether older cars will get it.
Affects: Bet 10 Tesla core · Spoke: Tesla Vehicles, Tesla Energy
Source: Tesla Powershare, checked Oct 28, 2026; Tesla North, Oct 27, 2026
Back in focus: Florida goes about six weeks without a Falcon 9 as Starship moves in
SpaceX's VP of Launch Kiko Dontchev said on Oct 21 there is a six-week gap in Florida Falcon 9 launches after Oct 20 while Starship gets ready at Kennedy Space Center, and as of Oct 27 no Florida launch had a firm date (Tallahassee Democrat).
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He said the Starship pad at 39A is "effectively complete" and called the gap a sign that it is "game time" for Starship. Boosters and ships will be built in Texas and shipped by barge to Florida (Florida Today). What it means: SpaceX is shifting people and pads toward Starship. Still unknown: the date of the first Florida Starship launch.
Affects: Bet 04 Starship · Spoke: Starship
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, Oct 27, 2026; Florida Today, Oct 22, 2026
02Coming up
- Oct 28Microsoft and Alphabet report quarterly results after the market closes; their AI spending plans matter for compute demand.
- Oct 29FCC vote on a proposal to open 482 MHz more for satellite-to-phone service (FCC open meeting, 9:30 AM CT). Amazon reports quarterly results after the market closes.
- Oct 30Tesla's sworn answers to safety regulators on Cybercab due.
- Late OctSpaceX nameplate compute near 2.2 GW by month-end (CFO).
- NovemberCybercab launches in Dallas (Tesla, Oct 21). Starship Flight 15, no earlier than Nov 8, with a booster and ship catch attempt; FAA launch license still needed. Optimus demo video possible in "a month or two" (Musk, Oct 21). Nov 17–19: FAA public scoping meetings on Starbase Starship expansion. Nov 30: FAA comments due on Starbase Starship expansion.
- DecemberDec 1: fourth SpaceX compute hosting deal starts billing. Anthropic expects all its SpaceX compute delivered, at about $3.1B a month in total (Anthropic S-1). Dec 3: Tesla annual meeting, 3:00 PM CT (Gigafactory Texas and online). Dec 8: big SPCX unlock. Dec 10: first Starship Starlink mission, no earlier than. EU vote on Tesla's driving software. Starship Flight 16, aimed at December. By year-end: SpaceX's $40B chip lease with Apollo expected to close, with its interest rate set at pricing (8-K); Starship lander Cabin 1 finished (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); Tesla targets 24/7 Robotaxi service, first Cybercab sales to customers, and 400 MW of its own AI training compute; SpaceX targets 2.5–3 GW of nameplate compute and a $100B annualized revenue rate based on December.
- 2027January and March: the no-cancel periods on Anthropic's SpaceX compute deals end; after that either side can cancel on 90 days' notice (Anthropic S-1). Q1: possible EU-wide FSD approval (Musk: surprised if later). First half: SpaceX's chip leases begin as Nvidia Vera Rubin chips arrive (8-K); easyJet starts installing Starlink (done by early 2028). Terafab research fab commissioning in the first half, test chip around May–June (Musk). AI5 chip in Optimus around April. Q2: first customer-owned cars join the Robotaxi fleet (Tesla target); Robotaxi revenue "noticeable" (Musk). Starship ship-to-ship fuel transfer demo in Q1 (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); weekly Starship flights targeted in the first half. SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum deal expected to close in the first half. Mobile V2 and Starmind satellites begin flying. Artemis III: Orion docks with a test Starship in Earth orbit (NASA). Uncrewed Starship Moon landing test late in the year (NASA). Optimus deliveries to outside customers around year-end (Musk).
- 2028Starlink Mobile service on SpaceX's own spectrum targeted for early 2028. Bolivia's towns start paying for school Starlink service after 24 free months (Bolivian government). Terafab volume production targeted around Q3 (Musk). New Roadster production starts (Tesla). First crewed Moon landings planned; NASA picks the first lander by readiness (NASA). Ukraine's first Nokia/ICEYE satellite planned (Nokia). Cowboy Space's Big Iron data-center rocket targets its first flight.
- 2029First Starship launch from SpaceX's planned Louisiana spaceport (target).
03The bets
Ten spokes are the big things. The bets below are a living scorecard; they change as the picture changes. Updated Oct 28, 2026. See all bets.
Starlink: the profit engine
Q3: 13.6M subscribers and $2.37B operating income. United now plans Starlink on its whole fleet by end-2027, with 661 jets done (Oct 27).
Watch Updated Oct 2702 · $SPCX · StarlinkStarlink Mobile: become a phone carrier
Now live across Brazil with Vivo, 7M phones connected (Oct 26). Verizon's CEO says a US network needs 4-6 years and $300B-$500B; Musk says 2-3 years.
Scaling Updated Oct 2703 · $SPCX · Super IntelligenceAI data centers: renting compute
Test: SpaceX's company-wide goal of $100B ARR (annual run rate: one month's revenue times 12) by year-end (December revenue x12, reported with Q4) and profit after stock pay. Q3: $7.56B revenue, $431M operating profit. Anthropic's S-1: up to $120.5B through 2029, about $3.1B a month from December, locked until early 2027 (Oct 26). The $40B Apollo chip deal is a lease, not yet closed.
Watch Updated Oct 2804 · $SPCX · StarshipStarship: cheap and routine
Ship 42 fired all six engines (Oct 27) after Booster 22's 33-engine test (Oct 25). Flight 15 no earlier than Nov 8; FAA license still needed.
Behind Updated Oct 2705 · $SPCX · StarmindOrbital compute: Starmind vs Google Suncatcher
SpaceX says Starmind satellites begin flying in 2027. Nothing in orbit yet; new rival Cowboy Space targets 2028 (Oct 26).
Watch Updated Oct 2606 · $SPCX · Super Intelligence · XGrok and X: subscriptions and ads
Musk says Grok's agent app can now make phone calls for you (Oct 25); X ad revenue up 19% to $538M in Q3.
Watch Updated Oct 2407 · $TSLA + $SPCX · TerafabTerafab
Test chip around mid-2027, volume around Q3 2028; first Texas phase put at $16B+ and about 3,000 jobs (Rep. McCaul).
Scaling Updated Oct 2808 · $TSLA · FSD + RobotaxiRobotaxi: driverless rides at scale
Texas list now 1,080 robotaxis, 573 of them Cybercabs (Oct 28), but a registration list, not cars in service; Houston area about 10 times bigger.
Watch Updated Oct 2209 · $TSLA · OptimusOptimus: robots doing real work
Production started on the Fremont line; 20,000 a week is at least a year out; outside customers around end of 2027.
Watch Updated Oct 2810 · $TSLA · Tesla Vehicles · Tesla EnergyTesla core: vehicles, Semi, energy
Q3: $1.53B free cash flow; Megapacks almost sold out for 2027; every new US and Mexico Tesla can now power tools through Powershare (Oct 27).