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TenSpoke · Today · Sunday, Oct 25, 2026
Musk says Ukraine broke Starlink's rules as full speeds return, and Starship's next booster is on the pad for a test fire.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on Oct 24 that Starlink and Starshield work at full speed again, and Musk said the limits came from Ukraine using Starlink for drone strikes. Starbase closed its beach today for a likely Booster 22 test, Texas now lists 970 Tesla robotaxis, and the FCC votes Oct 29 on more airwaves for satellite-to-phone service.
The daily context behind $TSLA and $SPCX, in plain English.
Today in 30 seconds
- Musk says Ukraine's military broke Starlink's rules; full speeds are back.
- Starship Booster 22 is on the pad, with the beach closed today for testing.
- Texas now lists 970 Tesla robotaxis, including 463 Cybercabs.
Words used on this page, explained
- Starshield
- The military version of Starlink, sold to governments.
- static fire
- A test where the rocket lights its engines while held down on the pad.
- spectrum
- The radio airwaves that phones and satellites use to talk.
- FSD (Supervised)
- Tesla's driver-assist software for customer cars; a driver must watch the road at all times.
- agent
- AI software that does multi-step tasks for you, like booking or buying, not just chatting.
01What's new today
The freshest updates first, each with what is still unknown and which bet it moves.
Starlink speeds are back in Ukraine, and Musk says Ukraine's military broke the rules
On Oct 24, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Starlink and Starshield stayed connected on equipment moving above 400 km/h, and Musk posted that "Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week."
Read more
Musk added that Starshield, the government system, "is controlled by the US government." The same day, President Trump confirmed he had spoken to Musk, after a Wall Street Journal report that he asked Musk to ease the limits (CNBC). Ukrainian officials say the slowdown hurt drone work, and US lawmakers from both parties have asked for a probe. Still unknown: exactly who set and lifted each limit. What it means: service is back for a key customer, but the public dispute is the kind of thing other governments point to when they fund their own networks.
Affects: Bet 01 Starlink · Spoke: Starlink
Source: CNBC, Oct 24, 2026; Elon Musk on X, Oct 24, 2026
Starship's next booster is on the launch pad, with the beach closed today for testing
Booster 22, the Super Heavy first stage for Flight 15, reached Launch Pad 2 at Starbase on Oct 24, and the City of Starbase closed Boca Chica Beach and Highway 4 today, Oct 25, from 6 AM to 6 PM CT, with Monday as a backup.
Read more
Closures like this usually mean a static fire, where all 33 engines light while the booster is held down on the pad. SpaceX has not announced a test time, and a closure does not promise a test. Ship 42 also needs its own static fire before Flight 15, now planned no earlier than Nov 8, when SpaceX wants to catch both the booster and the ship with the tower. What it means: this is one of the last big ground checks before the flight that could show Starship can be fully reused.
Affects: Bet 04 Starship · Spoke: Starship
Source: NASASpaceflight on X, Oct 24, 2026; City of Starbase closure order 2026-24, checked Oct 25, 2026
Texas now lists 970 Tesla robotaxis, up 43 Cybercabs in two days
The Texas DMV's list of self-driving vehicles for Tesla Robotaxi LLC grew to 970 on Oct 25, with 463 Cybercabs and 507 Model Ys, according to the Robotaxi Pulse tracker, which reads the state's official vehicle lists.
Read more
That is up from 927 on Oct 23, and every new vehicle since then is a Cybercab. The list counts registered vehicles, not cars carrying riders, and Tesla still does not publish ride counts. The growth lands on US Grand Prix weekend, when Austin's service area reaches the track (reported).
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: Robotaxi Pulse (Texas DMV vehicle lists), Oct 25, 2026
The FCC votes Oct 29 on more airwaves for satellite-to-phone service, and the big carriers want it cut back
At its Oct 29 meeting, the FCC will vote on a proposal to open another 482 MHz of spectrum for satellites that talk straight to phones, which could help Starlink Mobile.
Read more
The proposal would raise the number of bands where satellites can serve phones from five to 13. CTIA, the trade group for AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, asked the FCC in a recent filing to drop the 2.5 GHz and 3.45 GHz bands, 290 MHz of the total, citing interference with 5G (PCMag). This vote is a proposal (a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, the step that opens public comments), not final rules.
Affects: Bet 02 Starlink Mobile · Spoke: Starlink
Source: FCC Oct 29 meeting agenda, Oct 2026; PCMag, Oct 23, 2026
Back in focus: a Tesla using FSD (Supervised) hit and killed a pedestrian on a California freeway
The California Highway Patrol said a Tesla its driver said was in FSD (Supervised) struck and killed a 71-year-old man crossing Interstate 80 in Vallejo at about 2:35 AM on Oct 22.
Read more
CHP's early look at the dashcam video shows the car at about 70 mph braking and steering left before hitting the man; at least one more vehicle then hit him and did not stop. This was a customer car with a driver at the wheel, not a Robotaxi, and FSD (Supervised) needs the driver watching at all times. Still unknown: what CHP's investigation finds and whether federal safety regulators open a review.
Affects: Bet 08 Robotaxi · Spoke: FSD + Robotaxi
Source: CBS San Francisco (CHP), Oct 22, 2026; Los Angeles Times, Oct 22, 2026
Grok's agent app can now save logins and cards to check out for you, and Musk says agent demand is surging
An Oct 23 update lets Grok's agent app save your logins, payment cards and contact details in a Vault and fill them in to sign in or check out.
Read more
On Oct 24, Musk wrote that "Agentic demand is growing faster than I've ever seen anything grow." No new user or revenue numbers came with either; the last figure was 800,000 paid weekly users in early October (Q3 call, Oct 20). Easier checkout matters because buying things for people is one way agents can turn into paid revenue.
Affects: Bet 06 Grok and X · Spoke: Super Intelligence
Source: SpaceXSI changelog (v0.75.5), Oct 23, 2026; Elon Musk on X, Oct 24, 2026
Bolivia plans Starlink in about 4,500 to 5,000 public schools, with two years of service paid
Bolivia's President Rodrigo Paz signed deals with 85 towns in La Paz department on Oct 20 to start "Aula Conectada" (Connected Classroom), which puts Starlink dishes in mostly rural public schools.
Read more
Officials have given numbers from more than 4,500 (the presidency) to 5,000 (the education minister) dishes nationwide. The national government covers the first 24 months of service, and after that each town pays the monthly bill (Visión 360). The first phase reaches more than 73,000 students in 307 schools in La Paz. Small next to 13.6M subscribers, but it is a steady government customer that keeps paying after the free period.
Affects: Bet 01 Starlink · Spoke: Starlink
Source: Bolivia Ministry of the Presidency, Oct 22, 2026; Bolivia Ministry of Education, Oct 22, 2026; Visión 360, Oct 21, 2026
02Coming up
- Oct 25Starbase beach and highway closed 6 AM to 6 PM CT for SpaceX testing, likely the Booster 22 static fire (backup Oct 26). US Grand Prix race day at Circuit of the Americas, inside Austin's expanded Robotaxi area (reported).
- Oct 26Next SPCX share unlock takes effect (first trading day after Oct 24).
- Oct 29FCC vote on a proposal to open 482 MHz more for satellite-to-phone service (FCC open meeting, 9:30 AM CT).
- Oct 30Tesla's sworn answers to safety regulators on Cybercab due.
- Late OctSpaceX's $40B chip-backed debt was expected to price the week of Oct 26 (Semafor), but pricing talks reopened (Bloomberg, Oct 23). SpaceX nameplate compute near 2.2 GW by month-end (CFO).
- NovemberCybercab launches in Dallas (Tesla, Oct 21). Starship Flight 15, no earlier than Nov 8, with a booster and ship catch attempt. Optimus demo video possible in "a month or two" (Musk, Oct 21). Nov 17–19: FAA public scoping meetings on Starbase Starship expansion. Nov 30: FAA comments due on Starbase Starship expansion.
- DecemberDec 1: fourth SpaceX compute hosting deal starts billing. Dec 3: Tesla annual meeting, 3:00 PM CT (Gigafactory Texas and online). Dec 8: big SPCX unlock. Dec 10: first Starship Starlink mission, no earlier than. EU vote on Tesla's driving software. Starship Flight 16, aimed at December. By year-end: Starship lander Cabin 1 finished (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); Tesla targets 24/7 Robotaxi service, first Cybercab sales to customers, and 400 MW of its own AI training compute; SpaceX targets 2.5–3 GW of nameplate compute and a $100B annualized revenue rate based on December.
- 2027Q1: possible EU-wide FSD approval (Musk: surprised if later). Terafab research fab commissioning in the first half, test chip around May–June (Musk). AI5 chip in Optimus around April. Q2: first customer-owned cars join the Robotaxi fleet (Tesla target); Robotaxi revenue "noticeable" (Musk). Starship ship-to-ship fuel transfer demo in Q1 (SpaceX chart via TeslaNorth); weekly Starship flights targeted in the first half. SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum deal expected to close in the first half. Mobile V2 and Starmind satellites begin flying. Artemis III: Orion docks with a test Starship in Earth orbit (NASA). Uncrewed Starship Moon landing test late in the year (NASA). Optimus deliveries to outside customers around year-end (Musk).
- 2028Starlink Mobile service on SpaceX's own spectrum targeted for early 2028. Bolivia's towns start paying for school Starlink service after 24 free months (Bolivian government). Terafab volume production targeted around Q3 (Musk). New Roadster production starts (Tesla). First crewed Moon landings planned; NASA picks the first lander by readiness (NASA). Ukraine's first Nokia/ICEYE satellite planned (Nokia).
- 2029First Starship launch from SpaceX's planned Louisiana spaceport (target).
03The bets
Ten spokes are the big things. The bets below are a living scorecard; they change as the picture changes. Updated Oct 25, 2026. See all bets.
Starlink: the profit engine
Q3: 13.6M subscribers and $2.37B operating income. Ukraine speeds are back; Musk says Ukraine broke the rules (Oct 24).
Watch Updated Oct 2502 · $SPCX · StarlinkStarlink Mobile: become a phone carrier
FCC votes Oct 29 on more satellite-to-phone airwaves; big carriers want 290 MHz cut. US service targeted for early 2028.
Scaling Updated Oct 2403 · $SPCX · Super IntelligenceAI data centers: renting compute
Test: SpaceX's company-wide goal of $100B ARR (annual run rate: one month's revenue times 12) by year-end (December revenue x12, reported with Q4) and profit after stock pay. Q3: $7.56B revenue, $431M operating profit. $40B chip loan being repriced (reported).
Watch Updated Oct 2504 · $SPCX · StarshipStarship: cheap and routine
Booster 22 is on the pad, with a test window today (Oct 25). Flight 15, no earlier than Nov 8, tries to catch both stages.
Behind Updated Oct 2105 · $SPCX · StarmindOrbital compute: Starmind vs Google Suncatcher
SpaceX says Starmind satellites begin flying in 2027. Nothing in orbit yet.
Watch Updated Oct 2506 · $SPCX · Super Intelligence · XGrok and X: subscriptions and ads
Grok's agent app adds a Vault for logins and cards (Oct 23); X ad revenue up 19% to $538M in Q3.
Watch Updated Oct 2407 · $TSLA + $SPCX · TerafabTerafab
Test chip around mid-2027, volume around Q3 2028; first Texas phase put at $16B+ and about 3,000 jobs (Rep. McCaul).
Scaling Updated Oct 2508 · $TSLA · FSD + RobotaxiRobotaxi: driverless rides at scale
970 vehicles on the Texas Robotaxi list (Oct 25); a fatal FSD (Supervised) crash in California is under CHP investigation.
Watch Updated Oct 2209 · $TSLA · OptimusOptimus: robots doing real work
Production started on the Fremont line; 20,000 a week is at least a year out; outside customers around end of 2027.
Watch Updated Oct 2410 · $TSLA · Tesla Vehicles · Tesla EnergyTesla core: vehicles, Semi, energy
Q3: $1.53B free cash flow; Giga Berlin hit 7,000 Model Ys in a week; Megapacks almost sold out for 2027.